SCHNEIDEREIT: Humans’ love affair with fossil fuels won’t end anytime soon
Fossil fuels, anyone?
Like it or not, the world is not running out of oil or natural gas — contrary to doomsday forecasts that have been spectacularly wrong for a good century.
Most famously, “peak oil,” a concept around since the 1950s, has failed to materialize, despite repeated predictions of its imminent arrival.
Peak oil refers to the theoretical point when oil production hits its “peak,” afterwards inexorably slipping downward due to dwindling supplies of the fossil fuel.
People have been predicting “peak oil” for decades. The problem, or good news, depending on your point of view, is that we just keep finding more and more oil, whether from unconventional sources like shale oil deposits or via use of new technologies that allow for the economical exploration and exploitation of previously inaccessible fields.
Ditto for natural gas, which has also been subject to predictions of its demise due to resource exhaustion.
The U.S. now has such large reserves of oil and natural gas — thanks in large part to fracking — that it’s forecast to soon pass Russia to become the world’s second-largest fossil fuel producer, behind Saudi Arabia.
Large oil fields have been discovered — just to name a few places — in Africa, off South America and, in what’s sure to shake up the Middle East even further, in Israel.
The fact Canada and Israel signed an agreement on energy co-operation late last month is directly tied to last year’s discovery of massive shale oil deposits, possibly up to 250 billion barrels, southwest of Jerusalem. Israel is now also believed to have extensive — in excess of 15 trillion cubic feet — offshore unconventional natural gas resources.
So what does this all mean?
First, the price of oil — though it likely won’t crash, as a Harvard University researcher recently predicted — is quite unlikely to soar to the stratosphere as some have feared.
It’s Supply and Demand 101. As oil prices rose, they spurred more exploration — and more technological innovation — leading, in turn, to increased supply. That’s dampened further price spikes, though of course the global recession has also played a key role.
Natural gas prices vary quite a bit from region to region, but the same factors apply.
Second, whether you believe burning fossil fuels is accelerating humanity toward a fiery, self-induced end or that the world “may” be warming but we’ve nothing to do with it — or somewhere in between — there’s virtually no chance the human race will be abandoning the use of oil and natural gas in our lifetimes, our children’s or even our grandchildren’s. And probably much longer than that.
Put simply, too much of the global economy relies on fossil fuels to operate to seriously suggest doing without oil and gas for the foreseeable future.
The realization that peak oil is, at least for now, an illusion has struck some diehard environmentalists hard. English writer George Monbiot, for example, said in a recent column that there was enough oil in the ground to “deep-fry the planet.” He could see no way to dissuade governments and industry from using those fossil fuels, leaving him unsure whether he could look his children in the eyes.
Well, those who say humanity is facing calamitous ruin if global warming is not checked may be right, but then again, if the world were suddenly deprived of oil and gas tomorrow, millions, if not hundreds of millions, of people would starve to death within months.
That’s not going to happen, of course.
As some environmentalists have realized, increased use of cleaner fossil fuels like natural gas, which is now being produced in abundance, can reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
While no one knows, with certainty, the extent of climate change in coming decades, history has shown, repeatedly, that human beings are remarkably adaptable creatures. Given that even under the most optimistic scenarios for controlling GHGs, temperatures are expected to rise, that’s going to come in handy.
Don't worry...
Submitted by Alan on July 10, 2012 - 7:06am.
When oil and natural gas get too expensive, whenever that will be, there is an almost inexhaustable supply of pressurized gas hydrates in the deep water muck of the ocean floor. They'll find a way to extract them.
A typically arrogant column
Submitted by ginhawaii on July 10, 2012 - 7:42am.
"human beings are remarkably adaptable creatures". Love it. Our "adaptability" comes at a price. You may want to deny it but we human beings are not the only ones who need to adapt. Natural selection is on thing, change induced by our profligate, fossil fuel guzzling ways is entirely another.
Less diesel more natural gas
Submitted by honker on July 10, 2012 - 8:29am.
Nova Scotia should be promoting the use of natural gas. We are connected to the North American pipeline distribution system and should be advancing natural gas use. Using high grade transportation fuel (diesel) to heat homes is ludicrous when cheap, clean burning natural gas is available.
ahh...
Submitted by henry gondorf on July 10, 2012 - 9:39am.
Israel should be signing the agreement with Palestine , not Canada....international convention of oil wells near borders confirms that geology doesn't follow geography...and the no man's land saying come to mind...Canada signing that agreement sets a nice precedent doesn't it.
Great column
Submitted by Lisa_K on July 10, 2012 - 11:07am.
Monbiot and the other doomsayers will be proven wrong, like countless doomsayers have been proven wrong over the centuries. The human race has a bright future.
All Of The Above, That Are Viable
Submitted by daveburris on July 10, 2012 - 11:25am.
For anyone interested in the huge energy con game the greens have been playing, I suggest the following - Sen. James Inhofe(R-Ok), Senate floor, Apr. 25, 2012, Congress - http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.Speeches&Con...
Some excerpts - Pavillion, Wyoming "...EPA stepped in over the actions of the state and made a press announcement designed to capture headlines ...3 rounds of testing which showed no contamination from hydraulic fracturing yet only a few weeks later, EPA was announcing the opposite...."(There has been natural gas in the water for decades.)...President Barack Obama’s EPA administrator, LISA JACKSON, admitted the environmental risk of hydraulic fracturing is practically nonexistent. “I’m not aware of any proven case where the fracking process itself has affected water..." However she isn't giving up, not yet "...although there are investigations ongoing,” Much, much more.
Henry, I had no idea that the Palestinians had any oil exploration and production experience, if those reserves should run under Gaza, they will be another Mid-East oil kingdom. The world won't have to send any more aid. Silver linings abound.
hey Burris
Submitted by henry gondorf on July 10, 2012 - 2:55pm.
...You can read WSJ or Forbes magazine and get all your favorite positions regarding fracking , and the opposite side can scream all they want..I'm waiting for some good science..got any??....and who are "the greens"...??? and who are "they"....???
...Hey there is a good way to stop sending aid to Palestinians Burris..get the blazes off their land and cutting off their water and bulldozing olive groves etc...and then let them trade with whomeever they wish and whenever they wish..then we would see no need to send billions going to fund a zionist adventure that makes Palestinian aid look like peanuts.
Kilobytes and Kilobarrels
Submitted by CapeHalifax on July 10, 2012 - 3:17pm.
We reached Peak Oil when the first barrel was harvested, refined and burnt.
You see, they're not making any more of it.
Yes, we found "lots" of it but like the definition of "lots" from the 1800's - lots is not a much as it once was when population numbers and utilization was "lots" less.
It is widely accepted that the human population is growing at an unsustainable rate, but what is more alarming is the rate at which the social development index, the rate at which a society requires advanced technologies and fuels, is out-pacing the resources available.
The final argument is: there is a finite (limited) quantity of a non-renewable (finite) resource.
Insanity is classically defined as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting the same result even though you know the quantity is limited.
Not that long ago someone claiming to be a knowledgeable and reliably informed futurist on all things computer famously said a computer does not require more than 64 bytes of memory. All the nodding heads then could not foresee a practical use for a kilobyte, let alone a Megabyte, Gigabyte, Terabyte or even god-forbid, an Exabyte. Now we can't get to Exabyte quick enough.
The Sage now vehemently denies the attribution of the original statement.
Kilobytes or Kilo barrels - fossil fuel depletion can, and most likely will, come a lot sooner than we are prepared for if we don't start preparing for it today.
Love Affair
Submitted by econmagic on July 10, 2012 - 4:04pm.
Yeak, it is true that the peak oil crowd made some rather hasty predictions about the imminent doom awaiting us. That should be understandable, because let us face it, if they would have come out to say, that we are looking at doom in a few decades, no one would have paid atention, even if it happens to be true. This is unfortunately comming back to bite them hard.
While it may be true that their predictions did not materialize to the extent they claimed it would, the ceiling to global growth, that we are banging our heads against each time the economy tries to get up, should give us a clue that not all is well.
http://zoltansustainableecon.blogspot.com/2012/07/ceiling.html
Some People Don't Like The Facts
Submitted by daveburris on July 10, 2012 - 5:16pm.
Henry, don't like Sen. Inhofe? I suppose he has facts that don't exactly fit your ideas re renewables. It is what it is.
Right now the Palestinians biggest export is rockets, fired into Israel, which does not provide a whole lot of revenue, but they seem to find the money for those. They reap what they sow.